Part II: Stairway to Heaven or Highway to Hell?

An analysis of four plausible open contact scenarios

Part II: For Better or Worse

This scenario planning exercise is designed to answer this important question: How can humanity benefit from open contact with non-human races? It uses scenarios to guide us toward a vision of the future we want and mitigate the risks of a future we don’t. The goal is to identify strategies and actions that increase the likelihood of positive outcomes. Part I introduced four cross-cutting threshold variables that shape the conditions of open contact. This second part of the analysis defines four plausible contact scenarios: Stairway to Heaven, Welcome to the Jungle, Go Your Own Way, and Highway to Hell. The analysis assesses their advantages and disadvantages based on five guiding principles in order to identify the preferred scenario.

Humans generally fear change because it typically means we are moving from something we know and understand to something we don't. That uncertainty is part of what scares or unnerves people about extraterrestrial (ET) contact. Contact takes everything we thought we knew and throws it out the window. It raises big philosophical questions about who we are, where we come from, and what we are a part of. But contact comes with a more urgent matter:

How much will life on Earth change and will that change be for better or worse?

Contact is a story with many possible endings. No one can confidently predict how, when, or in what form open contact will happen, which is why scenario planning can help. Scenario planning is less about predicting the future and more about understanding the range of possible outcomes so that we can identify actions to mitigate against futures we don't want and steer us toward ones we do.

The greatest value of scenario planning isn't in knowing what to do once something happens, but acting before something does so that we are actively creating the future we want, not just reacting to it.

As noted in Part I, the best way to avoid the future you don’t want is to create the one you do.

The scenarios assume that there is a catalyzing event or series of events that provide unequivocal evidence of an intelligent, physical, and sustained non-human presence on or around Earth. Certainly, the details of that event or events matter to our immediate response, individually and collectively. However, the scenarios are meant to provide a longer-term view of different paths we could find ourselves on.

Methodology

The scenarios are designed to help us address the overarching question of what open contact will mean for humanity. We want to get a sense of how a post-contact world will differ from our pre-contact world, with the goal of better understanding how contact could unfold based on a range of conditions. With that understanding, we can choose the future we want and identify strategies that mitigate risk and increase the probability of realizing our vision.

Specifically, the scenarios seek to explore two critical components:

(1) How disruptive contact will be

(2) Whether it helps us or hurts us

Thus, the scenarios are plotted against the following axes that help to distinguish alternative futures:

• Degree of Disruption – ranging from mass chaos to ordered transition

• Nature of Influence – ranging from harmful to beneficial

At this point, we are not judging the scenarios as more or less probable. We are simply defining them, starting with the base variables or core assumptions discussed in Part I. These threshold variables are the external and internal driving forces that can be flexed to capture different outcomes. What value each variable was given, such as low, moderate, or high, depended on the quadrant, with the goal of maintaining internal consistency while creating meaningful differences among scenarios.

The scenarios are not intended to be exhaustive or definitive but instead capture a range of plausible contact scenarios. Part of scenario analysis is identifying major sensitivities and risks, which can be addressed in contingency plans.

Scenario Definition

The following scenarios represent alternative futures based on the threshold variables.

Stairway to Heaven

Open contact is characterized by relative ease of communication, where all parties are reasonably understood, whether using aids or through direct communication. This allows us to ask questions, learn about their culture, discuss plans for mutually beneficial relationships, and negotiate.

With regular and robust communication comes greater trust on both sides. We trust that they have positive intentions and want to be of service to us, while also serving their own goals. The relationship is peaceful, cooperative, reciprocal, and rooted in a shared desire for prosperity.

World governments working on behalf of the people, not special interests, team up with non-governmental organizations to form embassies for diplomatic galactic relations. The embassies provide a forum for humanity to reach consensus on goals, guidelines, and next steps, including treaties or charters to govern ET relations. The embassies also provide a central point of contact for ET communications, which promotes consistency. The embassies operate with a high level of transparency that allows the public to stay informed and provide input, while also ensuring accountability of diplomats to stated goals and expectations.

To assist us in solving problems that have plagued humanity, such as disease, pollution, famine, and resource scarcity and inequity, they work with our technical experts, in coordination with our governing bodies, to expand our scientific understanding. This includes multidimensional physics that open new realms of possibility across sectors, including energy, health care, and manufacturing. From new scientific understanding comes new technologies to solve humanity's biggest problems.

The degree of knowledge transfer is robust but moderated, in partnership with humanity, to allow humanity to understand the basic principles and apply them for human-driven invention and innovation. This preserves our legacy of scientific discovery and directs innovation toward the greatest public good. Oversight helps ensure the advanced teachings are applied responsibly and beneficially, as we are ready, thus promoting an orderly transition.

Welcome to the Jungle

Open contact is characterized by anger and upheaval. In this scenario, well-meaning ETs attempt to bypass the corruption of the government by communicating more directly with the people, such as through telepathy or broadcasted or written statements. Believing humanity deserves the truth, they share the history of ET involvement on Earth—both positive and negative influences—and expose government efforts to hide their existence, as well as the advanced technologies already shared with humanity but suppressed and withheld from the public by those in power.

While well-intentioned, this information is destabilizing to human societies, generating anger and violence toward government and corporate leaders. There is social unrest as world economies are shocked and many demand punishment for crimes against humanity, while others distrust the ETs and look to the government for protection. In a bid to hold onto power, leaders attempt to control the narrative and exploit the unrest to strengthen their position, which exacerbates conflict and sets the stage for violent revolution.

In an attempt to level the playing field and restore trust, the ETs open source their knowledge of multidimensional physics to spur innovation and invention, while offering prototypes of pivotal technologies. This rapid influx of information is intended to liberate humanity from corruption and profiteering, but absent coordination, it leads to confusion and competition, as many countries race to use the information for military purposes and bad actors seek personal gain. The ETs find themselves amidst a storm of competing agendas, outraged public, and fear about the future.

Go Your Own Way

Open contact is characterized by gradual change. The ETs are a regular presence in our world but they are neutral and do not seek to intervene in or overly influence human affairs. Think the Prime Directive from Star Trek. Their interaction with humanity is largely commercial and transactional.

Because humanity's governing institutions are neutral to beneficial, trade is cooperative and balanced. Agreements are honored among countries and with the ETs that prevent any one country or alliance of countries from securing resources, knowledge, or technology that lead to military advantage. In the spirit of non-interference, the ETs also do not volunteer technologies that are beyond the scope of humanity's natural evolutionary path. The onus is largely on humanity to discover the mechanisms and principles behind alien technology and progress as they are ready. As a result, knowledge transfer is slow.

Existing partnerships between world governments and NGOs facilitate coordination and cooperation, which promote appropriate checks and balances. While open contact represents a significant change in the status quo, the stability of the government, paired with a measured neutral approach by the ETs allows for gradual progress and acclimation to the new reality.

Highway to Hell

Open contact is characterized by fear, uncertainty, and chaos. It is difficult to communicate clearly and misunderstandings are prevalent, which leads to high public anxiety and competing factions. Absent clear and regular communication, humanity relies on interpretation and assumptions to discern intent, with many different theories vying for dominance.

While the ETs are not physically violent or aggressive, they show little regard for humanity, being primarily concerned with their own self-interest. As such, there is distrust and suspicion about their true agenda. Knowledge and technology transfer is low, limited to technologies that help the ETs achieve their ends, including technologies transferred in secret to those colluding with the ETs.

Due to high corruption in existing human governance, some governments and corporations seek to exploit the chaos for their own advantage, which increases diplomatic tensions between countries. Those in power form alliances with ETs for personal gain at the expense of humanity's greater good. Lack of transparency and accountability keeps humanity in the dark as to deals being made and susceptible to manipulation, including leaders using the state of emergency to further consolidate power and limit freedom. This results in mass social unrest and international conflict, which the ETs exploit.

Scenario Analysis

One of the goals in scenario planning is to identify a preferred scenario or scenarios so that actions can be taken to increase the likelihood of realizing that scenario or similar desired outcomes, while mitigating risks. Ideally, the selection of a preferred scenario happens through public input and consensus building. Absent such a stakeholder process at this time, I present an initial analysis of the four scenarios, highlighting the best case scenarios.

Five Guiding Principles for Open Contact

One of the first steps in evaluating scenarios is agreeing upon a set of guiding principles. These are the goals and values that matter most to the participants and the signposts that will tell us if we are on the right path to our desired future.

I propose the following five principles for open contact, representing what would be desirable from humanity's perspective. These are principles that humanity should agree upon to govern our own action and present to other civilizations as our non-negotiables.

1) Transparency – Humanity has open and timely access to accurate information about ET visitation and communication, including humanity's responses and engagement. Everything about contact needs to be out in the open.

2) Sovereignty – Humanity has a right to determine how open contact proceeds and what terms are acceptable. Earth is our home and we retain agency over it and responsibility for it. Humanity's claim to its own destiny needs to be respected.

3) Fairness – All nations on Earth have equal right to share in whatever benefits result from open contact, including unimpeded access to useful knowledge and technology. Information acquired through contact should be used to promote equality and improve the quality of life for all, particularly those with lower standards of living.

4) Peace – All information and technology should be applied for peaceful and beneficial purposes that promote cooperative relations among world nations. The emphasis of any knowledge transfer or advancement should be solving humanity's challenges, such as poverty, disease, and environmental degradation.

5) Stability – While open contact will be inherently destabilizing, it is desirable that change occur at the pace we are ready for it, allowing for as orderly and smooth a transition as possible. Matching the speed and extent of change to our ability to process it will lower fear and anxiety and allow humanity to be more strategic about how it moves forward.

Photo by Lisa Alam on Unsplash

Preferred Scenarios

The only scenarios that pass the test of the guiding principles are Go Your Own Way and Stairway to Heaven. Notably, they both represent a more deliberate and measured approach to knowledge transfer and relationships that promote greater stability. Go Your Own Way emphasizes gradualism, while Stairway to Heaven seeks to maximize benefit.

Whether we prefer Go Your Own Way or Stairway to Heaven largely depends on our priorities and tolerance for risk. Each comes with trade-offs.

The primary benefit of Go Your Own Way, in which relationships are primarily commercial and transactional, is that humanity sets the pace of its evolution. There is some degree of exchange that benefits all parties, but the ETs are mostly hands-off and careful not to unduly influence the human trajectory. As a result, Go Your Own Way comes with missed opportunities, as the easy-does-it approach to knowledge transfer limits the benefits humanity experiences to what we can mostly figure out on our own at our own pace.

From a societal continuity perspective, this may be advantageous. It also perhaps offers some protection for human autonomy and sovereignty, as we don't become dependent on the ETs or feel as though we are in their debt. It also preserves our journey of experimentation and scientific discovery. However, for those living in substandard conditions, who stand to benefit the most from technological advancement, throttling progress for the sake of stability may be unacceptable. It may be viewed as unfair and in violation of the guiding principles.

Additionally, Go Your Own Way is premised on a neutral system of human governance that is cooperative and has appropriate checks and balances. However, it is likely such a world is still mostly capitalistic and nationalistic. On the one hand, competition and profit-seeking could breed faster innovation, moving it closer to Stairway to Heaven. On the other, it risks violating the principles of transparency, fairness, and peace. Where there is advantage to be gained from new inventions, there is the risk of self-serving behavior at the expense of the greater good. Expecting governments to effectively control for that would require a level of control and authoritarianism that is counter to progress.

In many ways, Go Your Own Way keeps a foot in two canoes, as the folk saying goes. In trying to balance the old world with the new, what looks like the more stable path could quickly destabilize and send us toppling into chaos and division. It wouldn't take much, especially when we consider the potential for bad actors. Even if we can trust the ETs not to share beyond our capability to understand and responsibly integrate, trusting all of humanity to accept that gracefully and not seek to game the system may be a taller order. The peace and stability implied in Go Your Own Way could be very tenuous, representing a major risk.

In Stairway to Heaven, the ETs take an active role in assisting humanity, which can happen productively because humanity's institutions operate with integrity and transparency for the benefit of the people. This results in more rapid and expansive learning, which can be applied to solving humanity's biggest challenges.

With technological assistance, it may be possible for all humans to have access to healthy food, clean air and water, free energy, and advanced healing technologies, no matter where they live. With abundant resources for all, greater peace is possible as major sources of conflict fall away. In such a world, one can imagine a stronger sense of unity and freedom among the human race, as we shift from a competition mindset to an appreciation of what can be achieved through cooperation and compassion.

However, this scenario is not without risk. While we can hopefully agree that it is a good thing for all people to do well, those who profited under the old systems stand to lose power and control. Whole industries and economies have the potential to become obsolete nearly overnight, which could put a lot of people out of work and send financial markets into shock. If we want a soft landing, we will have a system in place that is ready to absorb those most affected by the changes. We will have planned for disruption and built contingencies to manage change, including starting to create the new world that will replace the old before the old falls away.

The Hidden Gifts of Open Contact

Perhaps it is best to think of open contact as a means to an end, as opposed to an end in itself. While becoming space-faring and joining the galactic community is an important part of our evolution for what it opens up to us, we should not lose sight of what we want for our human civilization on Earth.

Open contact has the potential to accelerate our journey but we need to decide where we want to go. What do we want for our world?

It is easy to believe technology will be our savior, undoing all the damage done and catapulting us into a cleaner, more equitable, and more peaceful world. Yet the scenarios show that technology transfer can lead to disparate outcomes, including some negative ones.

Technology itself is neutral—whether it benefits or harms us depends on who has access to it and how it is used.

According to some researchers and inventors, significant advances have already been made in the area of free energy, for example, but such inventions are aggressively suppressed by powerful interests profiting from the lack of them.

As we ponder the scenarios, we arrive at the same conclusion—we are the driving force of whether we benefit from ET contact. We are the key variable.

Sure, if ETs arrive on a mission of total annihilation, it won't really matter how enlightened we are. However, one can argue that since that hasn't happened, it is a low probability scenario. And if it did happen, well, all bets are off. Setting aside doomsday scenarios, the underlying health of our human societies and relations matters a great deal in whether we are helped or hurt by open contact.

In a world still dominated by fear, the arrival of an advanced civilization, however benevolent, could be extremely divisive. Some would be vulnerable to government attempts to exploit the emergency for their own gain, likely through the consolidation of power under the guise of protection. Others may fall to their knees in worship of our apparent saviors, relinquishing human autonomy and authority. Still others would focus on fighting one another, claiming that they know the truth of what is going on.

Introducing advanced technology to a world still mired in fear, hatred, and violence comes with peril.

We need only look to our nuclear history for an example of false dreams, broken promises, and serious trade-offs. Just as you don't give a wayward teen the keys to your new Porsche, if ETs truly wanted to benefit us, they might withhold information until we are ready for it, not just in our comprehension but our intention.

However, this doesn't mean we should be pessimistic about open contact.  First, as will be discussed in the next part, there are things we can do now to prepare ourselves for a smoother transition. Second, contact itself has the potential to radically shift our perspective, leading to higher consciousness.

Perhaps the biggest gift of open contact is what it does to the human heart and mind.

The irony is that their mere arrival might be the catalyst we need to move us out of the old world toward a new world of greater possibilities where we are tapping into the same knowledge that already exists in the unified field. Meaning, we become the vehicles of our own knowledge transfer and download.

What if the arrival of advanced civilizations inspired the idea that the web of life is so much more vast, incredible, and interconnected than we thought? What if it gave us a model for how to treat each other with love, kindness, trust, and compassion? What if it opened our eyes to the capabilities that come online when we focus our collective energy on creating a better world? What if they taught us that we are more powerful and multidimensional than we believed?

That doesn't mean the initial reaction won't be messy and scary. But again, this analysis is less concerned with the day or week of contact and more with how we want it to unfold over the longer term. For every scenario but the most dire, we have choices. We have strategies for preparing for massive change so that we are as ready as we can be for something so life-changing, starting with what we demand of our leaders, who will play an important role in navigating and setting the tone for contact.

Next up is a discussion of strategies and actions that drive us toward the preferred scenarios. Subscribe to receive the next installment in your inbox.

Part III: How to Prepare for Extraterrestrial Contact

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Carolyn Brouillard is a strategy consultant and transformational coach interested in preparing humanity for the galactic age. Following her personal transformation, including repeated UFO sightings, she repurposed her business skills to guide individuals and organizations past the edge of their current thinking to realize their highest aspirations. Consulting or speaking inquiries should be emailed to carolyn@carolynbrouillard.com.

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