Part I: What Will Extraterrestrial Contact Mean for Humanity?
Scenario planning can help us understand the potential implications of open contact and mitigate the risks of massive disruption so that humanity benefits.
Part I: The Driving Forces of Disruption
This scenario planning exercise is designed to answer this important question: How can humanity benefit from open contact with non-human races? It uses scenarios to guide us toward a vision of the future we want and mitigate the risks of a future we don’t. The goal is to identify strategies and actions that increase the likelihood of positive outcomes. This first part of the analysis introduces four threshold variables that will shape the conditions of open contact and form the basis of plausible contact scenarios.
Polls show that most people believe we are not alone in the universe. But for many people it is still a hypothetical that has no direct impact on their lives. That may soon change. Signs indicate that we are approaching greater revelation, where the majority of the human population accepts the presence of non-human intelligence (NHI) in and around our planet. Not because we pick up radio signals from a distant star but because we, as a society, finally acknowledge the evidence that has been hidden in plain sight—they are here and they likely always have been.
Such revelation places us on the precipice of the galactic age. This is an age of open contact between humans of Earth and beings originating from other planets and star systems. The galactic age is a revolution of thought and consciousness, where we expand our understanding of our own multidimensional nature, learn new scientific paradigms for the physics of reality, and become a space-faring race ourselves.
The galactic age is our gateway to full human potential and an essential element of our human evolution.
But that doesn't mean contact will be smooth, orderly, and full of rainbows and kitten kisses. The questions, challenges, and risks are many.
What will open contact mean for humanity?
What would we hope to learn from advanced civilizations?
How disruptive will it be to life on Earth?
What can we do now to prepare to increase the odds of a positive outcome?
It would serve us to give practical consideration to how we shape a post-contact world before those days are upon us. I propose that we start openly addressing these questions to increase the likelihood of a positive experience that benefits humanity to the greatest possible extent. While the uncertainty is large, we are fully capable of considering plausible scenarios for how our initiation into the galactic age will proceed; forming a vision for what best serves humanity at large; and strategizing about vital next steps. This is what scenario planning does. It creates a framework for exploring the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our world, recognizing that the future can be wildly different from today.
As published by The Royal Society in a paper titled, The Detection Of Extra-terrestrial Life and The Consequences For Science and Society,
"Imagination, however, must not be underestimated as a valuable means to advance knowledge towards new frontiers, and is not at all an unscientific concept. It is also valuable that a broad public has been given the opportunity to reflect on this topic."
Planning may not stop the initial shock or panic of a fleet of spaceships showing up, but it gives us a foundation to respond from, which should provide some comfort and direction in the days, weeks, and months that follow.
This analysis focuses on what happens after the initial shock and after we have an estimate of the situation. Returning to the question of how humanity can most benefit from open contact, the analysis takes a longer-term view to clarify our vision of the future and examine the actions we can take at various stages to realize that vision for the good of humanity.
The best way to avoid the future you don’t want is to create the one you do.
Scoping the Galactic Age
The revelation that humanity shares the universe with other forms of intelligent life is likely to shatter our collective concept of reality and expand our sense of what is possible.
In science, we will likely realize how little we understand the universe we live in.
In medicine, we may discover hidden capabilities of our bodies to heal and rejuvenate.
In energy, we may see the possibility of free, unlimited, pollution-free power.
In food, we may learn new ways to feed the world.
In the environment, we may gain access to technologies that restore the planet.
In politics, we may see opportunities to lead with unity, peace, and compassion.
In finance, we may choose new forms of commerce and exchange that uplift all.
In religion, we may realize that we are more powerful than we've been led to believe.
The specific impacts of contact on these sectors may vary, but there are cross-cutting threshold variables that are likely to set the trajectory for human-extraterrestrial (ET) interaction. These are the external and internal variables or driving forces of change. From these variables we can develop scenarios of potential conditions, outcomes, and impacts that inform our potential responses. Such responses could be the basis of a strategic action plan that mitigates risks and moves us toward our goals. These scenarios will be discussed in future articles.
For purposes of this exercise, I am assuming that contact is direct, physically observable, and visible to a critical mass of witnesses, such as a mass sighting of non-human craft in the sky, physical landing of a ship or ships, or appearance of physical ETs. There are numerous reports from credible witnesses of all of these already occurring, but what makes this contact different is that it cannot be reasonably ignored or dismissed, either because of visibility, verifiability, or both. I am also assuming that contact is repeated or sustained, thus signaling an intention for continued presence. It isn’t just a galactic pop-in.
The reason I am assuming that contact is direct, unequivocal, and repeated is because history has shown that anything less than that is insufficient for full acceptance of a NHI presence by the mass population. There are still influential scientists and skeptics like Neil deGrasse Tyson who demand "extraordinary evidence" before being willing to contemplate anything that threatens their dominant paradigm. Thus, I am assuming that the contact that truly will initiate the galactic age comes with "extraordinary evidence" that opens all but the most stubborn and resistant minds.
What are the driving forces of disruption?
The following threshold variables or driving forces shape the form and extent of interaction. Once known, they set the base conditions for our potential responses. These forces or variables include:
Degree of communication
Degree of knowledge transfer
Disposition of other race(s)
Human governance and leadership
Of the four variables, human governance and leadership is the sole driver we can fully control (albeit perhaps not quickly or easily). However, all scenarios emerging from these variables present choices.
Degree of Communication
Part of what has contributed to the mystique around unidentified flying objects (UFOs), now referred to as Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) or more recently, Unidentified Aerial-Undersea Phenomena (UAUP), is that we see them in the sky, track them on radar, and gather data on them, but we are not engaged in open direct communication that we can understand. Unlike an airline pilot in touch with air traffic control, we have no means to initiate a verbal dialogue with those responsible for what we are seeing. While it is common for craft to appear to respond to human thought, such as by appearing when summoned, and have access to private information, like the coordinates of the Navy's secret rendezvous points, whatever capabilities they have to perceive our thoughts is not currently shared by most humans who witness them.
The degree of communication matters because there can be no real relationship and exchange absent some means of understanding one another. Specifically, for humanity to benefit from advanced civilizations, we need to be able to communicate with them proficiently.
The following represents the spectrum of possible communication in the near to medium term, beginning with no successful communication to high comprehension of communication.
No communication – No successful communication between those making their presence known and us. We see them but there is no information exchange beyond what is observed.
Limited comprehension – Some form of communication from them but we cannot discern concrete meaning from it, at least immediately or in the short term. We may be able to infer intent but there is high uncertainty around messaging.
Moderate comprehension – A form of communication that humanity can understand or translate at a basic level, such that we can decipher intent and the overall nature of the message with reasonable confidence. For example, we may generally understand who they are, why they are here, and what relationship they seek with the human race.
High comprehension – A communication exchange that is well understood by all parties. Dialogue can occur unimpeded by major barriers to comprehension, such as through a common spoken language, telepathic communication, or other means to translate thoughts effectively. Certain concepts could be new to each party but the foundation exists to convey meaning with acceptable clarity.
Degree of Knowledge Transfer
One of the primary benefits to humanity of ET contact is the potential for advancements that improve life on Earth. As noted above, that could impact every major sector, resulting in quantum leaps in human science and technology. For purposes of this exercise, I assume that the advanced technology of other civilizations is derived from a more sophisticated understanding of universal physics and energetic properties. The implication is that there is foundational knowledge that can be applied across multiple sectors, resulting in broad benefit.
The main variable here is the degree of fundamental knowledge transfer, ranging from no transfer to high transfer. From there, many complicated questions and issues remain that will shape the degree and nature of change, including what information is transferred, how it is taught and integrated, who is trusted with the information, and at what speed. As a result, it should not be presumed that high transfer is good and low transfer is bad. Such matters will be discussed in the scenarios.
No transfer – No transfer of knowledge or technology beyond what is observed via contact.
Limited transfer – The knowledge or technology transferred represents an incremental increase beyond our current state. It would be comparable to other human scientific advancements.
Moderate transfer – The knowledge or technology transferred represents a significant advancement beyond our current state. It would be comparable to other human scientific breakthroughs that revolutionize industries.
High transfer – The knowledge or technology transferred results in a quantum leap that is so far beyond our current state as to be inconceivable. It represents the fullest degree of change.
Disposition of Other Race(s)
Whoever announces themselves will either be benevolent (the "friendlies"), neutral, or harmful (the "hostiles"), which will obviously affect the nature and outcome of contact. It is possible some mix of those are already here. Just like it is impossible to capture the diversity of the human race and agendas in a few labels, other forms of intelligent life are likely also unique in form, capability, and intent. It would be a mistake to paint them with a broad stroke and believe they all want the same thing. We can expect their engagement here to serve them in some way, even if they have our best intentions in mind.
We don't know who we'll be meeting first, nor how other civilizations might react to a bold first move by another group. It is not unreasonable to speculate that in moving into the galactic age, we will be joining a complex world of exopolitics and diplomatic ties and tensions among many different civilizations, some of which are working together on shared goals and others who aren't.
Harmful – We are approached by civilizations with negative intentions who seek to harm us in some way. Such motivations could mimic our own when we invade other countries, including seeking to exploit resources, seeking strategic political advantage, and seeking power and empire.
Neutral – We encounter observers who do not seek to intervene in or influence human affairs for positive or negative. As such, they are less likely to stage a major contact event. However, they may be present to witness it.
Benevolent – We are greeted by civilizations with positive intentions who seek to benefit us. They may be of higher consciousness and want to be of assistance as allies in our human evolution.
Human Governance and Leadership
Unlike the other variables, which are born from interaction with other civilizations, the human governance and leadership variable represents the power structures in place at the time of contact. It assumes that our human response will vary based on who is in charge and what their real motivations are, as well as the level of trust the people have in their government, which could influence the level of fear generated by contact. To simplify matters, I use the same scale used for the Disposition of Other Race(s) variable.
Harmful – We are governed by leaders and institutions with a moderate to high level of corruption, characterized by a lack of transparency, lack of accountability, and lack of public trust. Leaders are susceptible to outside financial and corporate interests and most government agencies and institutions are compromised in some way through the desire for profit and/or power. Information is censored and personal liberties are restricted. International relations are strained.
Neutral – We are governed by leaders who seek to balance competing interests and do no harm to the population it serves. The government struggles to make significant progress in improving people's lives but generally acts with integrity to keep people informed and protect personal rights, including freedom of speech. Leaders are predominantly neutral toward other countries.
Benevolent – We are governed by altruistic leaders and institutions who work for the good of the people. It represents a more enlightened society where the government is elected through free and fair elections and there is ample opportunity for public input and direction, which fosters public trust. There are effective checks and balances that mitigate corruption by outside interests and the accumulation of undue influence within government positions. Leaders work cooperatively with other nations for the good of humanity.
Relationship among the variables
As a precursor to developing meaningful and distinct scenarios, we must understand the relationships between different variables. While all of the above variables are independent, we can assume that some will influence others, either amplifying or minimizing them.
For example, we can expect knowledge and technology transfer to be more difficult absent a means to effectively understand one another. It is also complicated by their intentions. A race with positive intentions could seek to help us with our earthly problems, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they open the floodgates on thousands or millions of years of alien knowledge. If they truly wanted to benefit us, they might temper what is shared to ensure we are ready. Conversely, a race with negative intentions wouldn’t necessarily withhold information. If someone wanted to see us self-destruct, giving us dangerous technology under the guise of a gift is one way to do it. Beware the Trojan Horse.
Additionally, we may reach conclusions on these variables at different times. For example, our human governance is a base condition that predates contact, though contact may help reveal the true nature of our governments. We should be able to assess the degree of communication shortly after contact, which would likely help us discern disposition, though that could be an open question for a while as we monitor the situation. The degree of knowledge transfer also likely unfolds over a longer time horizon, though we may reach an agreement in the short term (if we’ve done our planning) as to how we want dissemination to proceed.
Moreover, we should not forget about our agency. Assuming we have adequate communication, we can advocate for what we believe is best for us. We can negotiate. In the case of knowledge and technology transfer, it is possible we could control the flow of information to promote a smoother transition. However, this example highlights the importance of the Human Governance variable. While contact may bypass our governments, who is in charge and directing the media, military, and markets matters greatly for our response.
Envisioning the post-contact future
From these variables, we can begin to construct scenarios of various plausible futures that help us imagine the implications of contact on humanity at large and within specific industries, such as energy, food, and medicine. The scenarios also give us a framework for crafting possible strategies and responses, which could form the basis of an action plan. That action plan could include triggers for when a given strategy should be executed.
Admittedly, there are a lot of things we don't know and questions we can't answer, but that uncertainty is exactly why these thought exercises are beneficial.
We don't get answers to questions we don't ask.
If we've never thought about it, we can't be prepared for it, let alone have a vision for how we would like to see it unfold. And while standing face-to-face with someone from another planet may not be something we can ever really prepare for, considering what could result from such encounters is something we can. The sooner we start taking this issue seriously, the better off we will be when the big day comes.
It might be coming sooner than we think. With lawmakers taking action and inviting whistleblowers with secret knowledge to come forward to share what they know about what the government knows, we could be mere months away from this blowing wide open. Once this information floods the collective consciousness, all the people who have had sightings and other experiences with the phenomena will speak up and it will be everywhere. With that saturation and momentum, it's only a matter of time before mass contact happens and we are off to the galactic races. We can either sit back and hope for the best or start planning for the future we want.
Next up are scenario definitions and strategies to prepare for contact. Subscribe to receive the next installment in your inbox.
Carolyn Brouillard is a strategy consultant interested in preparing humanity for the galactic age. Following her personal transformation, including repeated UFO sightings, she repurposed her business skills to guide individuals and organizations past the edge of their current thinking to realize their highest aspirations. Consulting or speaking inquiries should be emailed to carolyn@carolynbrouillard.com.
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Much of the solutions envisaged for today's problems continue to be classic Machiavelian, Real Politik perspectives based on external forms of power through manipulation of matter, energy, and information crunching. Civilians that have ethically enhancing contacts must find a more effective way to share their perspectives and have to be heard. But in a tough, competitive world, kindness is as much a taboo as airy fairy-sounding space brother contacting and "woo." So, the issue of how a serious, responsible, exo-aware, civilian community can bring an enlightening pro-disclosure agenda to the table relates to transmitting in a credible way that the evolution of human consciousness and of the species is desirable and possible. And we need to learn show that the transmission of this essential pillar of change can be palatably incorporated into modern political, scientific, and academic institutions... with objectivity and coherence of Man's essential nature which supersedes transhumanist or AI dependence.
So, I think that we need to bring these worldview-shifting issues in spirituality and metaphysics (applicable to science and politics) beyond the purview and silent special interest of our personal lives. To find a way to do it in a practical, political sense; in fact as a greater reality with life consequences.
The contact, disclosure, and exo-diplomatic aware community has to find a way to make its quality core messages necessary for inclusion in the conversations that would lead to national and international decision-making moves. We need to participate and be more outspoken and also to publicly resist the excessive use of the threat narrative (which is a repetition of a physicalist, competitive, predatorial mindset amidst a duality-enshrined 3D consciousness).
Voices like Carolyn's must be heard so that more comprehensive assessments are also taken into account and become part of the main, formal conversation illustrating politicians, religious moderates, and the military. Otherwise, in a world in which democracies are failing due to false manipulative information exacerbating tribal nationalism and ethnocentric feelings over facts, pluralism, respect for nature, all life, and reason, the shift necessary to digest what a grand cosmic (post spacetime-limited) proposal means can also fail. And it could also fail if we normalize through cynicism the abuse of power due to an increase in impunity as we move into an era of grave ecological and human crises due to our anti ecological stubbornness. So, there really is no time to waste. The meaning of a complex presence of "alter humans" (the others connected with us as One) must be faced and properly digested without simplistic frameworks. Otherwise, (if we simply allow ourselves to be mired in simplistic, old-world solutions to completely new problems) important issues like those raised by serious thinkers like Carolyn may no longer be recognized in their proper perspective and even the disclosure of an ET-multidimensional presence could become trivial in a world where almost everyone is distracted by entertainment, disinformation, identity wars, fear, materialism, and corruption.
So, even if the ET-multidimensional presence were officially acknowledged, or made its presence inescapable to a majority of the human population, its importance could be diluted if everyone is swamped by attractive, time-consuming attention grabbing stimuli while careful discernment becomes "boring" as - simultaneously - "feeling good", "feeling safe" "eating," and "belonging to a (limited) reference group"... of course, in competition with other such groups, become what really matters.
Giorgio Piacenza